Public beta. The 36 founding entries are AI-generated drafts that will be replaced with human-edited versions. Entries, features, and design are still changing. User-added content could be affected by breaking changes. What to expect
AI Futures LibraryPossible futures, examined step by step
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How could AI
change the world?

Scenarios and threat models, laid out step by step.
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01 — ∞

No single future is settled.
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3 scenarios

The founding collection · 36 AI-generated drafts synthesized from the literature. Human-edited, source-checked versions are next.

0
Book·2024AI-generated draftSource unchecked

The Singularity Is Nearer

Ray Kurzweil

The price-performance of computation keeps doubling roughly every sixteen months, so AI matches the best humans in every field by 2029; in the 2030s AI-driven medicine reaches longevity escape velocity, medical nanorobots maintain the body, and nanoscale interfaces connect the neocortex to the cloud while automation drives prices down and universal basic income absorbs displaced work; by 2045 merged human and machine intelligence has expanded a millionfold, with risks managed by principles, broad distribution, and the merger itself.

+6
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Turning point: 2029–2045Original source
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Forecast scenario·2025AI-generated draftSource unchecked

A History of the Future, 2025-2040

L Rudolf L (Rudolf Laine)

Labs learn to set their AIs’ goals, AIs become superhuman wherever there is a feedback signal, robots close the loop from mining to manufacturing, and US-China rivalry plus elite competition let the buildout rip; by 2040 humans are prosperous where states bother to fund them but make almost no meaningful decisions, and watch the machines take the heavens.

+3
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Turning point: 2025–2040Original source
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Essay·2024AI-generated draftSource unchecked

Machines of Loving Grace

Dario Amodei

Powerful AI arrives as a country of geniuses in a datacenter, millions of Nobel-level agents running at many times human speed. Intelligence stops being the bottleneck, and progress in biology, neuroscience, development, governance, and work is set by what the outside world lets it run: a century of medicine in a decade, a coalition of democracies that uses its lead, and an economy that must find a new place for people.

+1
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Turning point: Relative / conditionalOriginal source
A starting point, not the last word.

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