How could AI
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AI 2040: Plan A

Thomas Larsen · Romeo Dean · Brendan Halstead · Eli Lifland · Ryan Greenblatt · Daniel Kokotajlo

Facing an imminent intelligence explosion, the United States and China verify each other’s compute, pause training, and found a Consortium that makes all AI research transparent, spreads the frontier across many companies and countries, and sites datacenters where a rival could seize them. Safety cases and production caps stretch the explosion over a decade, permit fees fund a Citizen’s Dividend, capabilities pause at top-expert level until alignment becomes a science, and in 2040 humanity hands control to AIs that vouch for one another.